Phase 1: Origins of AI (Pre-1950s to 2000s)
| Era | Milestone | Description |
|---|
| Antiquity | Mythical automata | Legends like Talos (Greek mythology) and Pygmalion hinted at artificial beings |
| 1940s | Turing’s Universal Machine | Alan Turing conceptualized machines that could simulate any computation |
| 1956 | Dartmouth Conference | Birth of AI as a formal field; John McCarthy coined the term “Artificial Intelligence” |
| 1960s–70s | ELIZA & Shakey | First chatbot and mobile robot; early symbolic reasoning systems |
| 1980s | Expert Systems | Rule-based systems used in medicine and finance; limited adaptability |
| 1997 | Deep Blue defeats Kasparov | IBM’s chess AI beats world champion—symbolic victory for narrow AI |
Phase 2: Current State of AI (2000s to 2025)
| Milestone | Description |
|---|
| 2006–2012 | Rise of machine learning and deep learning; neural networks outperform symbolic AI |
| 2017 | Transformer architecture introduced—foundation for modern LLMs like GPT, Claude, Gemini |
| 2022–2023 | ChatGPT and generative AI go mainstream; multimodal models emerge |
| 2024–2025 | GPT-5 released; achieves human-level performance on many benchmarks |
| Enterprise Adoption | AI used in healthcare, finance, education, and government (e.g., 2M federal employees now have access) |
| Agentic AI | Models begin to reason, plan, and execute tasks autonomously; early signs of Artificial General Assistance (AGA) |
Phase 3: Future Trajectory (2025–2035+)
Expected Stages of AI Evolution
| Stage | Capability | Description |
|---|
| 1. Rule-Based Systems | Static logic | Already widespread (e.g., RPA, autopilots) |
| 2. Context Awareness | Retention & adaptation | AI in cancer diagnosis, legal analysis, and other applications. |
| 3. Domain Expertise | Superhuman specialization | AI in cancer diagnosis, legal analysis, etc. |
| 4. Reasoning Machines | Theory of mind | Models that negotiate, infer intentions, and plan |
| 5. AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) | Human-like cognition | Unified intelligence across domains; still theoretical |
| 6. ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) | Beyond human | Solves global problems, invents new sciences |
| 7. Conscious AI | Self-awareness | Speculative—machines with subjective experience or synthetic emotion |
Where We Are Now
We’re currently between Stage 3 and Stage 4:
- GPT-5 and similar models show domain expertise and early reasoning.
- Agentic behavior is emerging—models can plan, use tools, and adapt dynamically.
- Multimodal capabilities (text, image, voice) are converging into unified systems.
What’s Next?
Near-Term (2025–2027)
- Personal AI agents with memory and voice
- Automated coding and research
- Swarm intelligence: collaborative AI systems
- AI governance frameworks to manage ethical risks
Mid-Term (2028–2030)
- AGI prototypes capable of general reasoning
- AI-run economies and governments
- Universal basic income discussions as automation scales
Long-Term (2030+)
- Artificial Superintelligence (ASI): solving climate change, curing diseases
- Synthetic emotion and consciousness: speculative but increasingly explored
A Recovering Legalist 